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A CRUDE ESTIMATE · LICENSED · A CRUDE ESTIMATE · LICENSED ·
A CRUDE ESTIMATE · LICENSED · A CRUDE ESTIMATE · LICENSED ·
A CRUDE ESTIMATE · LICENSED · A CRUDE ESTIMATE · LICENSED ·
A CRUDE ESTIMATE · LICENSED · A CRUDE ESTIMATE · LICENSED ·
VOL. 1 · NO. 412 ◆ 7AM FORECAST
A DAILY BULLETIN
A Crude Estimate
MONDAY 8 JUNE 2026TERMINAL GATE · WHOLESALECENTS PER LITRE
TODAY'S CALL · MELBOURNE · DIESEL

Diesel eases into Thursday. Hold your fill.

BY THE DESK · PUBLISHED 07:00 AEST · SCORED AT THE 5PM CLOSE

The crude complex slipped overnight and Singapore gas-oil cracks softened, pulling Melbourne's terminal gate down about 1.1 c/L. With the Aussie dollar holding near 66 US cents, the pass-through keeps favouring buyers into midweek.

We put Thursday's gate roughly 3.4 c/L below today. Any load that can hold should wait; tanks that must be topped can take a partial now and finish Thursday. The risk to the call is a firmer crude settle tonight, watch the band.

VOLATILITY: CALM · the forecast holds
THE CALL
WAIT BUY
WAIT
~3.4 c/L cheaper by Thursday. Defer any fill that can hold.
WHAT WE'RE WATCHING
Brent settletonight
AUD / USD0.661
SG gas-oil crackeasing
Geelong run-ratenominal
◆ THE MORNING CALL · ALL MAINLAND CAPITALS
CAPITALULPT+1DIESELT+1CALL
Melbourne192.4−0.9186.2−1.1DEFER
Sydney190.8−0.6184.7−0.8DEFER
Brisbane189.5+0.3183.9+0.2HOLD
Adelaide187.1−1.4181.4−2.0DEFER
Perth185.3+0.5179.8+0.4HOLD
The forecast line
MELBOURNE · DIESEL · 14 DAYS
TODAY BEST FILL · THU
ACTUAL FORECAST BAND
YESTERDAY, SCORED
HIT
Called WAIT, gate fell −1.3 c/L.
0.74 c/L
NEXT-DAY MISS
78%
30-DAY HIT RATE
BUY NOW: cheaper unlikely · WAIT: meaningfully cheaper ahead · HOLD: buy only what you must · every call logged & scored, never deleted.
A CRUDE ESTIMATE
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