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· A Daily Bulletin ·

A Crude Estimate

Wednesday · 3 June 2026 · 5 AM AEST · Vol. I  ·  Anchor: Wed 3 Jun (AIP latest)
“Brent USD 96.85/bbl. Singapore Gasoil USD 145.7/bbl. AUD/USD 0.7183. Melbourne diesel T+3: 189.24 c/L. 10 of 10 forecasts in shock regime · if you can defer, defer.”
Keeping score · how we did

Yesterday · Wednesday 03 Jun · T+1 MAE 1.68 c/L · Bias +1.68 · In-band 100%

City PETROL DIESEL
fcstactualerr fcstactualerr
Melbourne164.12162.60+1.52✓191.33189.20+2.13✓
Sydney163.73162.20+1.53✓190.55188.80+1.75✓
Brisbane164.12162.50+1.62✓190.64188.90+1.74✓
Adelaide163.33161.80+1.53✓190.24188.50+1.74✓
Perth162.73161.20+1.53✓186.38184.70+1.68✓

Running accuracy

WindownMAEBias±1σ hit
Last 7 days · T+1202.11+2.11100%
Last 30 days · T+1202.11+2.11100%
Last 30 days · T+3102.73+2.73100%

How to read this: fcst is what we predicted yesterday for today. actual is what AIP just published. err = fcst − actual; positive means we over-predicted. The check or cross next to err is whether the actual fell inside the ±1σ uncertainty band we quoted. We publish every score every day, win or lose.

What the model can't see · the morning wire

Market wire · last 48 hours:

Where the cost stack sits this morning
Sing. Gasoil · SGB
145.68USD/bbl
Brent
96.85USD/bbl
WTI
94.56USD/bbl
AUD / USD
0.7183
Five capitals · forecasts ahead
Melbourne
ULP91 -17.90 on the week.
Diesel -22.30.
PetrolULP 91
⚠ SHOCK
Spot Wed 03 Jun: 162.60 c/L·Drift -0.940/day·Vol 2.28
HorizonDateForecast±1σ band
T+1Thu 04 Jun161.75157.31 – 166.18
T+2Fri 05 Jun160.72154.45 – 167.00
T+5Mon 08 Jun157.22147.30 – 167.14
T+6Tue 09 Jun156.00145.13 – 166.87
T+7Wed 10 Jun154.69142.95 – 166.43
Elevated volatility. Forecast unreliable · defer to spot or short-window discipline.
DieselIndustry standard
⚠ SHOCK
Spot Wed 03 Jun: 189.20 c/L·Drift -2.517/day·Vol 2.88
HorizonDateForecast±1σ band
T+1Thu 04 Jun189.24183.62 – 194.87
T+2Fri 05 Jun189.14181.19 – 197.10
T+5Mon 08 Jun189.32176.74 – 201.89
T+6Tue 09 Jun189.53175.76 – 203.31
T+7Wed 10 Jun189.71174.83 – 204.58
Elevated volatility. Forecast unreliable · defer to spot or short-window discipline.
Sydney
ULP91 -18.90 on the week.
Diesel -23.10.
PetrolULP 91
⚠ SHOCK
Spot Wed 03 Jun: 162.20 c/L·Drift -0.943/day·Vol 2.51
HorizonDateForecast±1σ band
T+1Thu 04 Jun161.36156.47 – 166.25
T+2Fri 05 Jun160.34153.43 – 167.26
T+5Mon 08 Jun156.87145.94 – 167.81
T+6Tue 09 Jun155.66143.69 – 167.64
T+7Wed 10 Jun154.36141.42 – 167.30
Elevated volatility. Forecast unreliable · defer to spot or short-window discipline.
DieselIndustry standard
⚠ SHOCK
Spot Wed 03 Jun: 188.80 c/L·Drift -2.530/day·Vol 3.13
HorizonDateForecast±1σ band
T+1Thu 04 Jun188.85182.74 – 194.97
T+2Fri 05 Jun188.76180.12 – 197.41
T+5Mon 08 Jun188.96175.30 – 202.63
T+6Tue 09 Jun189.19174.21 – 204.16
T+7Wed 10 Jun189.37173.19 – 205.54
Elevated volatility. Forecast unreliable · defer to spot or short-window discipline.
Brisbane
ULP91 -19.00 on the week.
Diesel -23.00.
PetrolULP 91
⚠ SHOCK
Spot Wed 03 Jun: 162.50 c/L·Drift -0.920/day·Vol 2.56
HorizonDateForecast±1σ band
T+1Thu 04 Jun161.65156.66 – 166.65
T+2Fri 05 Jun160.63153.57 – 167.69
T+5Mon 08 Jun157.14145.97 – 168.31
T+6Tue 09 Jun155.93143.69 – 168.17
T+7Wed 10 Jun154.62141.40 – 167.83
Elevated volatility. Forecast unreliable · defer to spot or short-window discipline.
DieselIndustry standard
⚠ SHOCK
Spot Wed 03 Jun: 188.90 c/L·Drift -2.497/day·Vol 3.13
HorizonDateForecast±1σ band
T+1Thu 04 Jun188.95182.85 – 195.05
T+2Fri 05 Jun188.85180.22 – 197.48
T+5Mon 08 Jun189.04175.39 – 202.68
T+6Tue 09 Jun189.25174.31 – 204.20
T+7Wed 10 Jun189.43173.29 – 205.57
Elevated volatility. Forecast unreliable · defer to spot or short-window discipline.
Adelaide
ULP91 -18.90 on the week.
Diesel -23.00.
PetrolULP 91
⚠ SHOCK
Spot Wed 03 Jun: 161.80 c/L·Drift -0.953/day·Vol 2.55
HorizonDateForecast±1σ band
T+1Thu 04 Jun160.97156.00 – 165.93
T+2Fri 05 Jun159.96152.94 – 166.98
T+5Mon 08 Jun156.51145.41 – 167.61
T+6Tue 09 Jun155.31143.14 – 167.47
T+7Wed 10 Jun154.00140.87 – 167.14
Elevated volatility. Forecast unreliable · defer to spot or short-window discipline.
DieselIndustry standard
⚠ SHOCK
Spot Wed 03 Jun: 188.50 c/L·Drift -2.530/day·Vol 3.11
HorizonDateForecast±1σ band
T+1Thu 04 Jun188.55182.48 – 194.61
T+2Fri 05 Jun188.45179.87 – 197.03
T+5Mon 08 Jun188.63175.06 – 202.20
T+6Tue 09 Jun188.85173.99 – 203.71
T+7Wed 10 Jun189.02172.97 – 205.08
Elevated volatility. Forecast unreliable · defer to spot or short-window discipline.
Perth
ULP91 -18.50 on the week.
Diesel -22.10.
PetrolULP 91
⚠ SHOCK
Spot Wed 03 Jun: 161.20 c/L·Drift -0.920/day·Vol 2.51
HorizonDateForecast±1σ band
T+1Thu 04 Jun160.36155.47 – 165.25
T+2Fri 05 Jun159.35152.44 – 166.26
T+5Mon 08 Jun155.88144.96 – 166.81
T+6Tue 09 Jun154.68142.71 – 166.64
T+7Wed 10 Jun153.37140.45 – 166.30
Elevated volatility. Forecast unreliable · defer to spot or short-window discipline.
DieselIndustry standard
⚠ SHOCK
Spot Wed 03 Jun: 184.70 c/L·Drift -2.523/day·Vol 3.09
HorizonDateForecast±1σ band
T+1Thu 04 Jun184.78178.76 – 190.80
T+2Fri 05 Jun184.71176.19 – 193.23
T+5Mon 08 Jun184.99171.52 – 198.46
T+6Tue 09 Jun185.23170.48 – 199.99
T+7Wed 10 Jun185.44169.50 – 201.37
Elevated volatility. Forecast unreliable · defer to spot or short-window discipline.
· A Crude Estimate
A Crude Estimate · acrudeestimate.com.au
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