A Crude Estimate
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Accuracy · proven in public

Keeping score.

Every forecast is logged before the gate prints, scored against the actual when it publishes, and posted here. Wins and misses both, never deleted. These are live numbers.

760
forecasts scored
live, against published prices
1.67 c/L
next-day miss
average, T+1
3.33 c/L
three-day miss
average, T+3
6.30 c/L
one-week miss
average, T+7
Per horizon

Further out, wider the miss.

Average absolute miss across every scored forecast so far. Bias is the average direction: positive means we lean high.

HorizonAverage missc/L
Next day1.67
Two days2.77
Three days3.33
Four days3.60
One week3.46
Six days4.52
One week6.30
Cumulative across 760 scored forecasts: average miss 3.69 c/L, bias -3.24 c/L, inside our quoted band 68% of the time. This page regenerates with every bulletin run. No manual editing, no hiding misses.
How we keep score
01
Log

Every forecast is recorded and timestamped before the terminal gate prints. It can't be edited after the fact.

02
Score

When the actual TGP publishes, we measure the miss in cents per litre and the direction we leaned.

03
Publish

Wins and misses post here automatically with each run. Nothing is deleted, ever.

Next-day miss, tracked daily
c/L · per trading day · last 14 days
Within tolerance Shock-week miss
Per city and fuel (T+1)
MarketMAEBias
Adelaide DIESEL1.98-1.70
Adelaide ULP911.34-0.71
Brisbane DIESEL2.00-1.68
Brisbane ULP911.37-0.72
Melbourne DIESEL1.84-1.69
Melbourne ULP911.28-0.67
Perth DIESEL2.09-1.78
Perth ULP911.47-0.81
Sydney DIESEL1.97-1.67
Sydney ULP911.37-0.70
10 worst misses to date
DateCityFuelHorizonForecastActualError
2026-07-17BrisbaneDIESELT+4187.70202.10-14.40
2026-07-17SydneyDIESELT+4187.61202.00-14.39
2026-07-17PerthDIESELT+4182.47196.70-14.23
2026-07-17AdelaideDIESELT+4186.52200.70-14.18
2026-07-22BrisbaneDIESELT+7198.35212.50-14.15
2026-07-21BrisbaneDIESELT+7194.35208.40-14.05
2026-07-20SydneyDIESELT+7191.05205.10-14.05
2026-07-22SydneyDIESELT+7198.36212.40-14.04
2026-07-22AdelaideDIESELT+7197.09211.10-14.01
2026-07-20BrisbaneDIESELT+7191.13205.10-13.97
Plain-English glossary
MAE (mean absolute error): on average, how many cents per litre we miss by.
Bias: the average direction of our misses; positive means we lean high.
Within band: how often the real price landed inside the range we quoted.
TGP (terminal gate price): the wholesale price a major sells fuel from its terminal.
T+1, T+3: "one day out", "three days out": how far ahead the call was made.
Walk-forward: tested only on data it hadn't seen yet, never fitted in hindsight.

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A Crude Estimate
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Every forecast is logged before the gate prints and scored against the published price. Wins and misses both, never deleted. Decision support, not financial advice. Operated by Ooshiee Pty Ltd · Melbourne.